A Quiet NAR Success on Its Calls for Action

By Robert Freedman, Senior Editor, REALTOR® Magazine

There are many reasons for the success of NAR’s most recent Call for Action, to which more than 18 percent of NAR members—a record— responded.

First and foremost is the compelling subject of the CFA: getting the home buyer tax credit extended and expanded. As NAR Chief Ecionomist Lawrence Yun has been saying for weeks, residential home prices are stabilizing and are on the cusp of heading up—the all-important precursor to restored confidence in homeownership. We’re relying on that improved confidence to boost sales, tighten inventories, and restore healthy credit markets.

Given that, letting the credit expire on Nov. 30 could have stopped sales momentum dead in its tracks.

It was also huge that Congress added the $6,500 credit for repeat buyers, because throughout 2009 much of the sales weight has been carried by first-time buyers. For market stability, repeat buyers needed to get off the fence and Congress saw that. Read more

Stevens Strongly Defends FHA’s Financials

By Brian Summerfield, Online Editor, REALTOR® Magazine

In an address to hundreds of REALTORS® at the 2009 NAR Conference & Expo Saturday afternoon, FHA Commissioner David Stevens offered a fervent defense of the organization’s financials. He specifically addressed the negative press surrounding the FHA’s recent audit, which showed part of its capital reserves below congressionally mandated levels.

Stevens distinguished the FHA’s capital reserves for unexpected losses from its regular reserve fund, which remains above 2 percent. Together, the two funds equal almost 4 percent in reserves. “We’ve come through the 100-year flood,” he said. “Despite the crisis, FHA is still standing with $31 billion in capital, $3.5 billion more than it had a year ago.” Read more

Things Are Looking Up: 2010 Economic Forecast

A large crowd of REALTORS®, many with coffee cups in hand, snapping photos with iPhones and Blackberries, packed a ball room this morning to hear NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun discuss housing market trends and the economic outlook.

Yun kicked off his presentation by telling the capacity crowd that things are looking up with the recent extension and expansion of the home buyer tax credit and home prices beginning to stabilize. While the U.S. economy still faces some significant challenges, including high unemployment, Yun says there are a number of reasons for REALTORS® to feel optimistic about 2010: “The momentum is building. . .”

According to Yun, the tax credit has already delivered a significant boost to the economy, bringing 350,000 to 400,000 buyers to the housing market so far. The extended and expanded home buyer tax credit will help to release pent-up demand, bringing more buyers–including move-up buyers–into the market and increasing market velocity. Yun estimates that in 2010, thanks to the credit and home price stabilization, home sales should increase by 15%–an estimate that he was careful to explain is extremely conservative. Home values, which Yun stressed are key to durable economic recovery, will begin to become positive in 2010.

To check out NAR’s Economic Forecast or the slide show presentation, visit NAR Research’s home page.

Jumbo Freeze Might be Thawing

By Robert Freedman, senior editor, REALTOR® Magazine
It’s still early but there are signs the availability of jumbo financing might be improving—although underwriting standards probably won’t ease any time soon. That means the days of creditworthy borrowers having a tough time getting financing for an amount over the conforming loan limit might be ending but they’ll still have to come up with a significant down payment and be prepared to show lots of documentation, like three years worth of tax returns instead of the customary two.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says lenders are slowly getting back into the game because the climate of dread is lifting: Wall Street analysts and business executives have recalibrated their performance scenarios to reflect the greatly improved conditions among lower-priced homes (thanks to the home buyer tax credit and steeply discounted pricing). That in turn is creating a virtuous cycle as the improved scenarios help relax concerns over the economy, pushing up equities, which in turn creates the wealth that further increases confidence.
Read more

Mental Recession Redux?

By Brian Summerfield, Online Editor, REALTOR® Magazine

In July 2008, in the heat of the presidential election, McCain campaign advisor and former U.S. Senator Phil Gramm caused some controversy when he seemingly characterized the United States as “a nation of whiners” who were plagued by a “mental recession.” In other words, the economic problems of the time were all in people’s minds.

Events since then would appear to controvert Gramm’s argument. The economic troubles manifesting themselves at the time—including considerable overleveraging among major banks, increasing unemployment, and rising mortgage defaults—were not just figments of our collective imaginations.

However, in spite of his flawed analysis, Gramm may have been on to something with his concept of a mental recession. In fact, we may be heading into one right now. Read more

All Things Tech at Inman Real Estate Connect

By Katherine Tarbox, Senior Editor, REALTOR® Magazine

The mood in the Grand Ballroom of the Palace Hotel in San Francisco, the site of the 2009 Inman News Real Estate Connect (August 5-7) conference, was remarkably upbeat. With this week’s encouraging news about the housing and job markets, the atmosphere was palpably different from just six months ago at RE Connect in New York. At 1,800, attendance was notably up from last year’s conference, and most sessions were standing-room-only.

Presenters seem to concur that signs point to a slow recovery, but recovery or not, the industry still needs to adapt to a different environment. Sherry Chris, president & CEO of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate LLC, argued that the average office space will need to decrease from 124 sq. feet per practitioner to 49 sq. feet and that newer associates will demand more technology. Read more